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原创 高盛预计美联储今年降息五次,2861点会是A股的大底吗?
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2861.13点会是A股市场的大底吗?从目前的政策环境、估值状态分析,2861.13点成为A股大底的可能性正在明显提升。但是,A股是否已经止跌,并从2861.13点开始展开新一轮上涨行情,仍然存在一定未知数,现阶段市场更需要一根放量中阳线提振整个市场的投资信心,这也是确立2861低点的重要信号。
展望2024年,无论是从外部环境还是从内部环境分析,A股市场所处的环境应该会比2022年和2023年改善不少。
从外部环境分析,前两年A股深受美联储单边大幅加息的影响,股市处于阴跌不止的状态,外资净流向对股市形成了一定的抛售压力。但是,随着美联储加息周期步入尾声,2024年美联储有望从加息周期逐渐转变为降息周期。